Sunday, May 02, 2010

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2010 Apr 27 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html



# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
19 - 25 April 2010


Solar activity was at very low levels and the visible disk was spotless during the period. However, there were three CME’s observed leaving the disk during the period. Two CME’s on 19 April and one CME observed, around 22/0000 UTC, on the Stereo A and B spacecrafts. All three CME’s appeared to be non-geoeffective.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit varied between normal background and moderate levels from 19-22 April. The remainder of the summary period was at normal background levels.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels during the period. The geomagnetic field was initially at quiet levels from 19-21 April, but became unsettled late on 22 April due to the arrival of a coronal hole high-speed stream. Minor storm to active levels were observed early on 23 April due to elevated wind speeds of 468 km/s and sustained negative Bz of -8 nT, both observed at the ACE spacecraft. On 24 April, mostly quiet level were observed, with the exception of isolated active to minor storm levels observed at middle latitudes due to nighttime sub-storming. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
28 April - 24 May 2010

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with possible isolated periods of low levels during the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal background levels through most of the period. However, moderate to high flux levels are possible during 05-08 May.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels from 28-29 April due to a coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet conditions are expected during 30 April- 03 May. Generally unsettled levels are expected for 04-05 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Quiet levels are expected to prevail from 06-19 May. Generally unsettled levels are expected for 20-21 May due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream. Activity is expected to return to quiet levels during the remainder of the period 22-24 May.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2010 Apr 27 1851 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html


# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2010 Apr 27

# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2010 Apr 28 75 7 3
2010 Apr 29 78 7 3
2010 Apr 30 80 5 2
2010 May 01 80 5 2
2010 May 02 80 5 2
2010 May 03 80 8 3
2010 May 04 80 15 4
2010 May 05 80 10 4
2010 May 06 80 5 2
2010 May 07 80 5 2
2010 May 08 80 5 2
2010 May 09 80 5 2
2010 May 10 80 5 2
2010 May 11 80 5 2
2010 May 12 78 5 2
2010 May 13 75 5 2
2010 May 14 75 5 2
2010 May 15 75 5 2
2010 May 16 75 5 2
2010 May 17 75 5 2
2010 May 18 75 5 2
2010 May 19 75 5 2
2010 May 20 75 8 3
2010 May 21 75 8 3
2010 May 22 75 5 2
2010 May 23 75 5 2
2010 May 24 75 5 2
(NOAA)