Thursday, August 06, 2009

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2009 Aug 04 1901 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly.html
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
27 July - 02 August 2009


Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed. The visible disk was spotless.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels during 27 - 30 July. Fluxes decreased to normal levels during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels during 27 - 30 July. Activity increased to unsettled levels early on 31 July, but returned to quiet levels by midday. Quiet levels persisted during the rest of the period. ACE solar wind data indicated the unsettled conditions on 31 July were due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Velocities increased from 329 to 431 km/sec during 31 July. Interplanetary magnetic field activity associated with the CH HSS included increased Bt (maximum 7 nT at 31/0614 UTC) and intermittent periods of southward Bz (minimum -7 nT at 21/0606 UTC).

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
05 - 31 August 2009

Solar activity is expected to be very low.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high levels during 21 - 22 August. Normal to moderate flux levels are expected during the rest of the period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during 05 - 06 August due to a coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Field activity is expected to decrease to quiet levels during 07 - 08 August. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled levels during 09 - 10 August as another CH HSS disturbs the field. Quiet conditions are expected during 11 - 17 August. Field activity is expected to increase to active levels on 18 August with a chance
for minor storm levels due to a recurrent CH HSS. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled levels on 19 August as the CH HSS subsides. Mostly quiet conditions are expected during 20 - 31 August.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2009 Aug 04 1901 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact: www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html


# 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
# Issued 2009 Aug 04
#

# UTC Radio Flux Planetary Largest
# Date 10.7 cm A Index Kp Index
2009 Aug 05 68 7 3
2009 Aug 06 68 7 3
2009 Aug 07 68 5 2
2009 Aug 08 68 5 2
2009 Aug 09 68 7 3
2009 Aug 10 68 7 3
2009 Aug 11 68 5 2
2009 Aug 12 68 5 2
2009 Aug 13 68 5 2
2009 Aug 14 68 5 2
2009 Aug 15 68 5 2
2009 Aug 16 68 5 2
2009 Aug 17 68 5 2
2009 Aug 18 68 18 5
2009 Aug 19 68 8 3
2009 Aug 20 68 5 2
2009 Aug 21 68 5 2
2009 Aug 22 68 5 2
2009 Aug 23 68 5 2
2009 Aug 24 68 5 2
2009 Aug 25 68 5 2
2009 Aug 26 68 5 2
2009 Aug 27 68 5 2
2009 Aug 28 68 5 2
2009 Aug 29 68 5 2
2009 Aug 30 68 7 3
2009 Aug 31 68 5 2
(NOAA)